NYSSA Market Forecast™ 2014: The Endless Summer Debate

Thursday January 9, 2014 11:30 AM - 2:00 PM
NYSSA Conference Center
Available as: Live Session;
Categories: Programs for Members, Seminar

View In-Person Program Details View LiveStream Program Details

While the calendar in the northern hemisphere may say otherwise, the financial markets continue to bask in the warming glow of a seemingly endless summer of higher highs.

Despite the muscular economic and geopolitical risks that threaten to kick sand in the face of our money men and women of finance, markets seem quite serene—and why not? As long as corporate profits and liquidity continue to “hang ten,” investors seem more than willing to ride the wave of higher highs in virtually all financial markets.

Will the tropical breezes of quantitative easing continue to warm the hearts of investors? Will the refreshing sips of the fragrant financial libation concocted by central bankers continue to lift the spirits of the investment partygoers? Or is there a storm on the horizon just waiting to spoil the liquidity luau? And, if so, will the next sunset be marred by the silhouette of a black swan?

On January 9, NYSSA will bring together leading economists, investment strategists, and geopolitical experts to discuss and debate the issues at hand. Plan to attend, and find out if the economic and financial beach blanket bingo continues or gets washed away by an unforeseen economic or financial tsunami.


Richard Bernstein is the chief executive officer/chief investment officer of Richard Bernstein Advisors LLC. Bernstein founded Richard Bernstein Advisors LLC (RBA) in 2009. The firm utilizes a unique top-down approach to investing, focusing on macro trends rather than individual stock selection. RBA manages several accounts in partnership with several leading financial institutions, with AUM of approximately $1.7 billion as of 9/30/13. Bernstein has over 30 years of experience on Wall Street, most recently as the chief investment strategist at Merrill Lynch & Co. Prior to joining Merrill Lynch in 1988, he held positions at E.F. Hutton and Chase Econometrics/IDC. A much-noted expert on equity, style and asset allocation, Bernstein was voted to Institutional Investor magazine’s annual “All-America Research Team” eighteen times, and is one of only forty-nine analysts inducted into the Institutional Investor “Hall of Fame.” He was also twice named to both Fortune magazine’s “All-Star Analysts” and to Smart Money magazine’s “Power 30,” and was a member of Registered Rep’s “Ten to watch” for 2012. His book Style Investing: Unique Insight into Equity Management is widely viewed as the seminal book on style-oriented investment strategies. He donates the profits from that and his other book, Navigate the Noise: Investing in the New Age of Media and Hype, to charity. Bernstein is co-chair of the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation endowment’s Investment Committee (~$1.8 billion) and sits on the Hamilton College endowment’s Investment Committee (~$700 million); he is a trustee of both institutions. He is also an adjunct professor of finance at the NYU/Stern Graduate School of business, and is a member of the Journal of Portfolio Management’s Advisory Committee. Bernstein holds an MBA in finance, with Beta Gamma Sigma distinction, from New York University, and a BA in economics from Hamilton College. He has lectured on finance and economics at numerous colleges, universities and professional forums.

Daniel Clifton is a partner and the head of Strategas Research Partners’ DC office. He directs its legislative and public policy research efforts. Prior to joining Strategas, he served as executive director of the American Shareholders Association (ASA), a non-partisan, non-profit organization which analyzes public policy affecting shareholders. His research and political analysis on the interaction between legislation, policy and equity markets has been widely cited in the media. Prior to joining the ASA, Clifton served as chief economist and federal affairs manager for Americans for Tax Reform and as a senior staff member in two gubernatorial administrations working on economic issues. He received a MS in economics and public finance from Rutgers University and a BA in urban planning and policy development also from Rutgers.

Joseph Kalish is the chief global macro strategist for Ned Davis Research Group. As managing director of the Macro Group, he has been following and studying financial and economic trends for over 30 years. He and his team are responsible for all of the firm’s bond and economic analysis. Kalish authors several Macro Insights publications. On the fixed income side, he writes the Credit Comment, a high frequency, quick look at developments in the credit markets. Additionally, he is the editor of the Bond Market Focus, a monthly strategy publication on fixed income. Kalish is a regular contributor to other Macro Insights publications, including Trends & Themes and the U.S. Economic Outlook and Comment, which analyzes all of the day’s US economic reports and other relevant events. The Macro team also assists the firm’s equity strategists by identifying relevant economic trends and fundamental themes and providing historical market perspectives. They collaborate with the Global Asset Allocation team and provide economic analysis through global and regional commentary. They also work closely with the Sector Strategy team in helping to formulate the economic outlook for the major sectors of the economy. In recent years, Kalish has been particularly focused on credit trends and credit-sensitive sectors of the economy, including residential and commercial real estate, banking, manufacturing, and trade, and has written extensively on these topics. In addition to the bond and economic analysis, Kalish has held a number of other positions since joining the company in July 1986 including: editor of Industry Watch (an analysis of equity group trends), editor of Techno-Fundamental Ranks (a stock screening service), and associate editor of Stock Market Strategy. Kalish was also a portfolio manager and trader for an equity mutual fund for five years. Kalish is a member of the National Association for Business Economics. He is regularly quoted and interviewed by the financial media in the US and internationally. Kalish received his Bachelor of Science degree in information systems management cum laude from the University of Maryland and his Master of Business Administration degree in finance, with distinction, from Stern School of Business of New York University.

Philip J. Orlando, CFA, is Federated’s chief equity strategist and is a senior vice president and senior portfolio manager. He joined Federated in 2003 and, with over 30 years of industry experience, he is responsible for formulating Federated’s opinions about the equity market, as well as positioning strategies for the firm’s investment products. He also serves as the chairman of both the Macro Economic Policy and the PRISM Asset Allocation committees. Orlando is also the group head of the Balanced/Macro, Growth/Income and Structured Products/Risk Management teams within Federated’s equity division. For the last 20 years, Orlando has been a regular contributor to CNBC’s “Squawk Box,” “Squawk on the Street,” “Power Lunch,” “Closing Bell,” “Nightly Business Report,” and “The Kudlow Report” programs, as well as Fox Business News, Bloomberg, Reuters, The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times, among others. Orlando received his MBA and bachelor’s degree from New York University. He is a CFA charterholder.

Liz Ann Sonders has a range of investment strategy responsibilities reaching from market and economic analysis to investor education, all focused on the individual investor. She analyzes and interprets the economy and markets on behalf of Schwab’s entire client base and chairs Schwab’s Investment Strategy Council, which provides strategic asset allocation guidance and tactical sector recommendations for the company’s investor base. The output of Sonders’ work is via written reports, audio and video recordings, conference calls, and webcasts. She is a regular contributor to all of Schwab’s client newsletters and the keynote speaker at many of the company’s corporate and client events. She is also a keynote speaker at many outside conferences, including for Barron’s, FPA, CFA Institute, Morningstar, and IMCA. Prior to joining Schwab in 2002, Sonders was a managing director at U.S. Trust (a division of Schwab, 2000–2007) and a member of its Investment Policy Committee. Before U.S. Trust, Sonders was at Avatar Associates, an original division of the Zweig/Avatar Group for 13 years, as a managing director and senior portfolio manager. She is a regular guest and guest host on many CNBC programs, as well as on ABC’s Good Morning America, CBS This Morning, PBS NewsHour, Fox Business News, CNN, and Bloomberg TV & Radio. She was a regular panelist and guest host on PBS’s Wall $treet Week With Louis Rukeyser. Sonders is also regularly quoted in all the major financial publications including The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, BloombergBusinessWeek, Financial Times and Associated Press articles. Sonders received her BA in economics and political science from the University of Delaware. Currently, she sits on the university’s Investment Visiting Committee. She received her MBA in finance from Fordham University.

Sam Stovall, CFPchief equity strategist of S&P Capital IQ, serves as analyst, publisher, and communicator of S&P’s outlooks for the economy, market, sectors, and stocks. He is the chairman of the S&P Investment Policy Committee where he focuses on market history and valuations, as well as industry momentum strategies. Stovall is the author of The Seven Rules of Wall Street (2009) and the now out-of-print book, The Standard & Poor’s Guide to Sector Investing. He writes a weekly investment piece on S&P’s MarketScope Advisor platform, focusing on market and sector history and industry momentum. His work is also frequently found in S&P’s flagship weekly newsletter The Outlook. Stovall joined Standard & Poor’s in April 1989. Prior to S&P, he served as editor-in-chief at Argus Research. Stovall received an MBA in finance from New York University and a BA in history and education from Muhlenberg College.

Special Presenter

Matthew Orsagh is a director of capital markets policy for CFA Institute. His responsibilities include serving as spokesperson for the CFA Institute Centre; identifying and developing new corporate disclosure project ideas; promulgating Capital Markets Policy Group corporate disclosure positions, policies, and standards; and coordinating and supporting related public awareness activities. Previously, Orsagh was a research analyst at Governance Metrics International, where he scrutinized financial statements and company filings to evaluate the corporate governance practices of numerous global companies.  Orsagh was named one of the 2008 “Rising Stars of Corporate Governance” by the Millstein Center for Corporate Governance and Performance at the Yale School of Management. Orsagh is a member of the New York Society of Security Analysts (NYSSA) and is an advisory board member of SASB (Sustainability Accounting Standards Board).

Special Guest Interviewer

Pimm Fox is a Bloomberg Television anchor and Bloomberg Radio host of the in-depth investment program, Taking Stock with Pimm Fox, which airs weekdays at 5:00 p.m. ET. Fox also co-hosts Bloomberg Businessweek Radio with Ken Prewitt on Bloomberg Radio. Fox provides unique access into the world of professional investing through conversations with top Wall Street analysts, fund managers and CEOs. Taking Stock offers insight into how company news, long-term strategy, trading tactics and market techniques impact stocks, bonds and commodities. During his career at Bloomberg, Fox has interviewed business chiefs and investment gurus including Netscape founder Jim Clark, SunAmerica founder Eli Broad, and Berkshire Hathaway Chairman and CEO Warren Buffett. Fox joined Bloomberg in 2006, after overseeing financial services coverage for the Dow Jones News Service in London. He also served as a guest commentator for CNBC and the BBC and was published by The Institutional Investor, Newsweek, and The New York Times. Fox has also served as director of the Charles Schwab Smart Investor website, as well as West Coast bureau chief for Computerworld magazine. Fox received a bachelor's degree in architecture from Columbia University.


Vinny Catalano is president and global investment strategist with Blue Marble Research and author of Sectors and Styles (Wiley 2006). A leading investment strategist and asset manager, Catalano appears regularly in the media (Bloomberg TV and Radio, foxbusiness.com, BNN TV, CNBC, New Delhi TV, CCTV America), is frequently quoted in various professional publications (The Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, Financial Times, Reuters), and is a guest speaker at various major forums. Catalano also produces and conducts timely topical and educational programs with many CFA Societies and other groups, including the highly acclaimed “Market Forecast Series.” Prior to forming Blue Marble Research, Catalano was a senior financial advisor with Merrill Lynch providing investment advice and counseling to high-net-worth individuals. During this time, he also provided educational and informational instruction to senior- and mid-level corporate executives of publicly-traded and privately held companies. Catalano is a past president of the New York Society of Security Analysts and a nonresident senior fellow at the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation.

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Program Details

Thursday, January 9, 2014

Check-in and Lunch
11:30 a.m.–12:15 p.m.

12:15 p.m.–1:45 p.m.

Special Presentation
1:45 p.m.–2:00 p.m.

NYSSA Conference Center
NYSSA, 1540 Broadway, Suite 1010 (45th Street Entrance)

Member $80
Student Member $50
Nonmember $120
Virtual Member $120
Nonmember Student $120

($10 surcharge for walk-ins)

Registration Deadline
Tuesday, January 7, 2014

CFA Institute CEUs
2 credits

Richard Bernstein
, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer, Richard Bernstein Advisors LLC
Daniel Clifton, Partner, Head of Policy Research, Strategas Research Partners LLC
Joseph Kalish, Chief Global Macro Strategist, Ned Davis Research Group
Philip J. Orlando, CFA, Senior Vice President, Senior Portfolio Manager, Head of Macro/Balanced Team, Chief Equity Market Strategist, Federated Investors, Inc.
Liz Ann Sonders, Senior Vice President, Chief Investment Strategist, Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.
Sam Stovall, CFP, Chief Equity Strategist, Standard and Poor's

Special Presenter
Matthew Orsagh, Director of Capital Markets Policy, CFA Institute

Special Guest Interviewer 
Pimm Fox, Anchor, Taking Stock with Pimm Fox, Bloomberg Television; Host, Bloomberg Businessweek Radio, Bloomberg Radio

Vinny Catalano, President and Chief Investment Officer, Blue Marble Research

 LiveStream Program Details

Thursday, January 9, 2014

12:15 p.m.–2:00 p.m. | Presentation

NYSSA LiveStream

Note: Do not come to NYSSA if you sign up for the live stream.

Regular/Affiliate Member $49
Student Member $19
Non-Member $99
Virtual Member $99
Non-Member Student $99

Registration Deadline 
Thursday, January 9, 2014
at 11:00 a.m.

CFA Institute CEUs
2 credits

Additional Information
If you are unable to register for this event online, please call (212) 541-4530 for assistance.

Register via Mail/Fax 
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